Ethiopia

Tigray - The leader of rebellious forces in the Tigray region said on Saturday that Ethiopian government forces have begun an offensive to capture the regional capital, Mekelle.

Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) told Reuters in a text message that Mekelle was under "heavy bombardment".

Billene Seyoum, a spokeswoman for the Prime Minister's office, said that Ethiopian forces would not "bombard" civilian areas, adding "the safety of Ethiopians in Mekelle and Tigray region continues as a priority for the federal government."

For the past three weeks, the state of TPLF, the ruling party administering the northern region of Tigray in Ethiopia has been engaged in a conflict escalating beyond measure. On Friday, the Ethiopian Prime Minister and Nobel Peace Price laureate Abiy Ahmed declared the launching of the final phase of his army's operation in Tigray, attacking the regional capital Mekelle - a city of 500,000 people. So far, the conflict has led to the deaths of hundreds and the displacement of thousands of civilians. How did Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa, home to the African Union and soon to be the next African superpower end up here, or more importantly, why is it's Nobel Peace Prize laureate Prime Minister leading an armed conflict against his own people?

A brief background of the conflict:
In 1991, the TPLF fought decades of wars to defeat the then military rule in Ethiopia, bringing in a federal democracy with substantial autonomy for regional governments. However, TPLF, with its four-party coalition, retained the central power to themselves. This was criticized by the people as repressing opposition voices and hindering Ethiopia's transition to democracy, giving rise to massive protests. The political crisis paved way for the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who came to power in 2018. Abiy Ahmed liberalized politics, removed key Tigrayan politicians accused of corruption, and signed a peace deal with neighboring Eritrea engaged in a territorial conflict with the state, which gave him the Nobel Peace Prize. However, he was criticized for centralizing power and destroying the federal system. His friendship with Eritrea was not welcomed by the Tigrayans, leading to increased tensions between the parties. Things got worse when the Prime Minister postponed elections this year citing the ongoing pandemic, and the Tigrayans defied it to hold their own regional elections. This led to the center cutting ties with Tigray and suspension of funds to the region. On 4th November, the Prime Minister ordered military strikes in Tigray, citing attacks from Tigray forces at an Ethiopian military base.

What's happening now:
The Ethiopian government has announced a six-month emergency, and cut off the internet and all communications in the region, leaving the civilians in the dark during an ongoing pandemic and military conflict. The cutting of communication infrastructure, besides the fact that it is against international human rights law, also makes it almost impossible for journalists or independent human rights and peace monitors to operate in the region. Prime Minister Ahmed also rejected offers of outside interference including from three African Union Envoys who offered to broker talks, citing it is an internal matter of the state, also denying them access to visit the region. The United Nations have expressed concerns about possible war crimes by the Ethiopian army. An Amnesty International report confirmed the deliberate massacre of non Tigrayan civilians in Tigray allegedly by TPLF, which would also account for war crimes.

To make things worse, the conflict seems to be spilling into neighboring states and has the potential to destabilize the entire region. There have already been reports of missiles being fired at Eritrea and about 27000 refugees fleeing to Sudan. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "the stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region".

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