IRAN'S BREAKING POINT

"A La Calle" directed by Maxx Caicedo and Nelson G. Navarrete

TEHRAN - On December 28, 2025, what began as economic protests across Iran exploded into the broadest strike and uprising in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. For three weeks, the country was engulfed in chaos as security forces killed thousands of protesters during a brutal crackdown that included an unprecedented nationwide internet blackout. As of January 17, 2026, the streets have fallen into an uneasy calm under massive security deployment, marking a temporary suppression of a movement that the Independent Iranian Filmmakers Association (IIFMA) warned was "another Tiananmen tragedy unfolding before our eyes".​

The protests engulfed cities across all 31 provinces, spreading from major urban centers to smaller towns. What distinguished these demonstrations was their scale and the regime's response: the systematic use of live fire against unarmed civilians. On January 3, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that "rioters should be put in their place," while the IRGC's Lorestan provincial corps pledged to target "rioters, organizers and leaders of anti-security movements...without leniency." Women stood at the forefront across all provinces, echoing decades of resistance against systematic repression.

The Toll of Suppression

The human cost of this uprising has been staggering. As of January 14, the Iran Human Rights NGO (IHRNGO) confirmed at least 3,428 protesters killed. By January 17, other rights groups corroborated a death toll exceeding 3,000. However, the true scale remains obscured by the information blackout. Activist groups working with medical officials have estimated more than 10,000 deaths, while Iran International cited sources close to the Supreme National Security Council reporting approximately 12,000 killed-figures that remain difficult to independently verify.​

Arrest numbers show a similar disparity. While Iranian authorities acknowledged approximately 3,000 arrests as of January 16, human rights organizations estimate the true number of detainees is between 20,000 and 50,000.​

Hospitals and morgues tell the story in visceral detail. CBS News verified video footage showing hundreds of bodies piled at a morgue in a Tehran suburb, with visible evidence of gunshot wounds and severe trauma. Medical facilities across the country reported being overwhelmed, with security forces visiting private hospitals and threatening staff to hand over names of those treated for protest-related injuries.​

As the death toll mounted, Iran's judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei signaled on January 14 that the regime would conduct fast-track trials and executions. "If we want to do a job, we should do it now," Mohseni-Ejei stated on state television. "If it becomes late... it doesn't have the same effect."

Voices of Resistance: Cinema Under Fire

Iran's film community has suffered direct casualties. Director Javad Ganji, 39, and actor Ahmad Abbassi were shot dead by regime forces during protests in Tehran on January 9, 2026. The IIFMA confirmed their deaths, stating: "The Islamic regime's acts of brutality have reached a shocking level."​

Iranian filmmakers have emerged as powerful witnesses to state violence, with their work recognized through Cinema for Peace awards. Mohammad Rasoulof's The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2025 Most Valuable Film winner) and Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident (2026 nominee) combine real protest footage with narratives of families disintegrating under repression. Guy Nattiv and Zar Amir's Tatami (2025 nominee), following an Iranian female judoka competing for her country's first gold medal, captures the same personal courage now filling Iran's streets. Films documenting women's resistance-including Nasrin (2021 Women’s Empowerment winner), Be My Voice, and Ballad of a White Cow (both 2022 nominees)-expose the judicial brutality and systematic oppression now playing out in real time. These works preserve what the regime seeks to erase: the truth.​

On January 10, Panahi and Rasoulof released a joint statement condemning the violence and internet blackout, calling on the international community to "monitor what is happening in Iran" and warning that "silence today will have regretful consequences". Both directors face prison sentences for their work.​

Despite the risk, Panahi delivered an impassioned speech in New York on January 13 while accepting the Best International Film award: "The Islamic Republic has instigated a bloodbath to postpone its downfall," he declared. "Today, the true scene is not on screens but in the streets of Iran. This is no longer a metaphor-it is a grim reality, marked by gunfire, day after day." He urged artists worldwide to speak out and pressure governments to address "this humanitarian disaster."

Laureates in Exile and Behind Bars

Iran's two Nobel Peace Prize laureates embody the regime's decades-long suppression of dissent. Narges Mohammadi, the 2023 Nobel laureate who was also awarded the Guardian of Democracy Award at the Cinema for Peace Gala in 2024, was violently arrested on December 12, 2025, at a memorial service in Mashhad, just eight days after her medical release from a 13-year prison sentence. Rather than return to prison, Mohammadi used her brief freedom to protest outside Tehran's Evin prison and speak to international media. Her husband, Taghi Rahmani, living in exile in Paris with their 17-year-old twins, has not heard from her since the arrest.​ From exile, Shirin Ebadi,Iran's first Nobel Peace Prize laureate (2003), has documented the regime's violence throughout the uprising. On December 30, 2025, when security forces began shooting directly at unarmed protesters in Fasa, Ebadi condemned it as a clear violation of basic human rights. On January 7, she declared on Instagram: "Iranians would no longer submit to autocracy. A free and democratic Iran will be built through unity and solidarity".​

An Uneasy Calm

As of January 17, a fragile quiet has returned to Iranian cities. The protests have largely subsided following the "brutal" crackdown, which the Institute for the Study of War assesses has "likely suppressed the protest movement for now". However, analysts warn that the regime's extensive security deployment across all provinces is unsustainable and that grievances remain unresolved.​

The information blockade is slowly lifting; authorities began restoring SMS services and initiating a phased rollback of the internet blackout on January 17, though significant restrictions remain. Meanwhile, opposition figures, including Reza Pahlavi, have called for renewed coordinated demonstrations, suggesting this silence may be temporary.​

Whether through the testimony of exiled activists, the courage of imprisoned voices, or the bodies piling up in overwhelmed morgues, one message emerges: the Islamic Republic has faced its gravest challenge in 47 years. The world is watching to see if this calm marks an end, or merely a pause.
 

Strategic Security Framework

If Greenland is invaded, this represents the end of NATO and the protection of freedom in Europe. This is why The World Forum advises securing dual protection: both NATO & USA and a new Alliance of Democratic Nations with Article 5-kind protection for every democratic country in the world.

The current global security architecture, built in the aftermath of World War II, faces unprecedented challenges from authoritarian expansion, hybrid warfare, and the erosion of international norms. While NATO has provided collective defense for the transatlantic community for over 75 years, recent geopolitical developments - including threats to Greenland's sovereignty, aggression against Ukraine, and the systematic undermining of democratic institutions worldwide - demonstrate that existing frameworks require reinforcement and expansion.

The World Forum proposes a complementary Alliance of Democratic Nations that would extend mutual defense commitments beyond regional boundaries to all democracies globally. This alliance would operate alongside NATO, providing Article 5-level protection to democratic nations regardless of geographic location, creating a truly global safety net for freedom and self-determination. Such an alliance would serve not as a replacement for NATO but as a necessary expansion of collective security in an era where threats to democracy transcend traditional regional boundaries.
 

Middle East Diplomacy

“The Voice of Hind Rajab” directed by Kaouther Ben Hania

by Gershon Baskin, Cinema for Peace Envoy 

As President Trump has announced the formal establishment of the Board of Peace, the Executive Committee, the appointment of the commander of the International Stabilization Force and the Palestinian National Committee for Gaza that was announced previously, we have officially entered Phase 2 of the end of war in Gaza agreement. The White House official statement said: “This milestone perfectly aligns with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025), which endorsed President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan and welcomed the establishment of the Board of Peace. The Board of Peace will play an essential role in fulfilling all 20 points of the President’s plan, providing strategic oversight, mobilizing international resources, and ensuring accountability as Gaza transitions from conflict to peace and development.”

I know several members of the new Gaza national committee (the Gaza technocratic government). I have worked in the past directly with one of them. They are all good people dedicated to Palestine and believers in the essential need for Palestine to make peace with Israel. Yesterday the Gaza National Committee held its first meeting in Cairo and their success will be the success for all of the people of Palestine and Israel.

The reporting on this issue from statements by President Trump on his Truth Social account posts as well as messages that I have received from some of the people directly involved in this process clearly demonstrate that this process is moving forward. This will include the demilitarization of Hamas, the deployment of the International Stabilization force (ISF). The Commander of the Force has been appointed - Major General Jasper Jeffers.

The last remaining deceased hostage, Ran Gvili, must be returned to Israel. From my sources Hamas with the assistance of the ICRC are seriously search for the last deceased Israeli hostage in Gaza. With the deployment of the ISF, Israel will be required to redeploy its forces, eventually behind the Israeli border. The Rafah crossing will soon open in both directions with the EU – EUBAM organization monitoring the crossing on the Gaza side of the crossing.

It seems that most of the humanitarian aid will be managed by private sector elements. The reconstruction of Gaza will soon begin while more secure temporary housing will be provided for the more than one million Gazans living in tents and partially demolished bombed out buildings.

The official White House statement talks about the full Trump 20-points plan that keeps the process locked into the two states solution and the establishment of Palestinian self-determination at its core. The Board of Peace will definitely also oversee the rebuilding of the Gaza educational system – that is a good thing. Hopefully this will impact the educational system in the West Bank as well which has to propel educational reform in Israel.

Municipal elections will be held in the West bank in April 2026. Palestinian national elections and Israeli national elections will be held in 2026. This is the year for change. The developments which led to the end of the Gaza war are unprecedented in Israeli-Palestinian-International diplomacy. There has never been a better chance for the people of Israel and Palestine to move towards real peace. I know that Mr. Witkoff, Mr. Kushner, and Sir Tony Blair are extremely dedicated to move this process forward successfully. I have full confidence in their dedication and in their abilities.

Those of us who can influence the process must keep the decision makers on the Board of Peace and the Executive Committee focused on the endgame of the two states solution. There are many challenges ahead and no doubt the unexpected will happen, but we have a clear path forward. Too many of us are cynical and criticize what is happening. That is not constructive. This is the time to support this process and to contribute to bringing the Israeli-Palestinian to a peaceful end.

“It Was Just an Accident” directed by Jafar Panahi